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Topic: Odds of Cheating  (Read 8789 times)
BluesGuy
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« on: May 21, 2009, 07:45:02 AM »

Prompted by If you're not doing it, the other four people in the room likely are in the blog.

What's the number.  Who's done it?  Are we approaching 80 percent? 

« Last Edit: May 21, 2009, 07:48:20 AM by BluesGuy » Logged

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kellybean
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« Reply #1 on: May 21, 2009, 08:15:58 AM »

Wow!
Those are some scary numbers. Unfortunate that all you have to do is connect with your current partner and then there would be no need to look otherwise.
Sad.
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Sanguinista
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« Reply #2 on: May 21, 2009, 08:19:32 AM »

Well....  it depends on what your definition of "it" is....  

Have I ever messed around with a man while I was continuing a committed relationship with another one?  No.  Never.

But.... my divorce was not final when I met (and messed around with Wink) DH.  Ex had been out of my life for a year, out of my bed for a year and a half - there was no talk, hope, or hint of reconciliation.  I didn't feel like I was cheating, but had a few people pointing out that I was dating while I was "still married".  To them, I guess I'm an adulteress.    

Back in college, I moved out and was done a few days before my BF went to bootcamp.  I didn't "dear John" him while he was there, but I didn't write, didn't call, neither did he.  I had moved out, though, he knew it, and had no delusions about why I moved out.  I "saw" someone else while he was gone, we ended up getting back together a couple months after he got back.  He said I cheated.  I didn't, and don't think I did.  

I have, though (not proud, but truthful) been involved with a married man while I was otherwise single.  Three times.  

So yeah, I'm really splitting some hairs if I try to get on a moral high horse about the issue.  
« Last Edit: May 21, 2009, 08:32:09 AM by Sanguinista » Logged
Sanguinista
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« Reply #3 on: May 21, 2009, 08:29:21 AM »

BG, I still question your math.  Or your logic.  If - using the hair-splitting definition of cheating - (roughly) 50 percent of men cheat, and (roughly) 30 percent of women cheat, that's 40% of people who cheat, not 80%. 

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BluesGuy
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« Reply #4 on: May 21, 2009, 08:57:44 AM »


BG, I still question your math.  Or your logic.  If - using the hair-splitting definition of cheating - (roughly) 50 percent of men cheat, and (roughly) 30 percent of women cheat, that's 40% of people who cheat, not 80%. 


The stats were "50 to 65 percent of husbands and 45 to 55 percent of wives."  Call it 58 percent for men, and 50 percent for women for the sake of round numbers.  We're looking for marriages in which only one partner cheats, to account for the largest probable number of marriages affected. 

I assumed that some of these couples would both be cheating, and chose (for easy math) to assume half of the women were married to men who were also cheating. If there was no duplication in the other half, we'd add 25 percent of the women to the 58 percent of the men, and come up with 78 percent of marriages affected.   

I rounded to 8 out of 10, but, you're making me think about this again. 

If we assume that it's half of the men who are married to women who are also cheating, we'd add 29 percent of men to the 50 percent of women, and we're right back to 8 out of ten marriages have at least one cheater, at some time in the relationship.  (The stats favor prior to age 40, by the way).

Yup.  I'll stick with my original conclusion. 
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Rowanthe
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« Reply #5 on: May 21, 2009, 09:03:54 AM »

Quote
According to author Peggy Vaughan (The MonogamyMyth) most experts’ best educated guesses have 50 to 65 percent of husbands and 45 to 55 percent of wives

if husband (Y)  plus wife (X) = 100%

then split them in two....(i.e. 50% are men and 50% are women) and then divide the percentages accordingly...

that means 25-30% of men...
and 22.5 to 28 or so % of women...

Add them together and I get roughly 45% to 60% of the total population surveyed.  Does that make sense? Because for us to combine the numbers properly we have to combine the total population (men plus women) and then apply the percentages to the entire population instead of the two separate parts. 


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BluesGuy
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« Reply #6 on: May 21, 2009, 12:06:57 PM »

But now you're counting some of those marriages twice.  I was trying to avoid that. 
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« Reply #7 on: May 21, 2009, 12:22:39 PM »

No because I'm only applying the percentages to the individual 50% that they apply to and adding those two separate percentages together. 
Then again it's been a long time since highschool math...Cheesy
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enoughalready
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« Reply #8 on: May 21, 2009, 01:19:44 PM »

I wouldn't take the statistics as an indication that marriage is unnatural.  It just means that extracurriculars, occasionally, are also natural.

There are always stories behind the stats and that's what makes stats almost useless except for their sheer gossip potential.  When I was with my ex, I'd never intended to cheat, and I still say that under the circumstances, I didn't.  In any case, I still wouldn't have made it into the stats because I've never been married, so, whatever.

But, the point is, my ex went from a sexual dynamo for the first few years of our relationship, to a nun (though, apparently, not the kind of nun that was polled in this study).  Her personality also darkened and she just became a shell of her former self during, what appears to be an almost decade long identity crisis that was triggered by her entry into law school.

I have moved on and have had sexual encounters with others, but I'd never say, yet, that I've had a anything near the relationship I'd had with her when things were going well--very well indeed.  Seemed like the perfect relationship.

I just think that we, as human beings, regardless of social institutions can also live beyond them.  But we need social institutions as well.  Individually, though, we have to live with social insitutions or without them.  I'm getting on to 40 and have never been married.  Perhaps I won't ever be.  But I still wouldn't say that marriage and full commitment and fidelity are unnatural as a whole across the board conclusion.  And though I still feel, oddly, that marriage and fidelity is natural for me, but I'd say that I haven't ever been with someone who felt the same way or, if they did feel the same way, they didn't feel that they could have that with me.

It's a complicated subject, just like everything else we discuss here.
« Last Edit: May 22, 2009, 08:12:40 AM by enoughalready » Logged
BluesGuy
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« Reply #9 on: May 21, 2009, 08:05:36 PM »

Quote
According to author Peggy Vaughan (The MonogamyMyth) most experts’ best educated guesses have 50 to 65 percent of husbands and 45 to 55 percent of wives

if husband (Y)  plus wife (X) = 100%

then split them in two....(i.e. 50% are men and 50% are women) and then divide the percentages accordingly...

that means 25-30% of men...
and 22.5 to 28 or so % of women...

Add them together and I get roughly 45% to 60% of the total population surveyed.  Does that make sense? Because for us to combine the numbers properly we have to combine the total population (men plus women) and then apply the percentages to the entire population instead of the two separate parts. 


Nope.  Took me some time with a calculator, but I've finally figured this out.  To make this easier to follow, let's adjust the number of cheating women to 49 percent, and the non-cheaters to 51.  We'll keep cheating men at 58 percent, and non-cheaters at 32.

Now, of 100 couples we see:

58 men who cheat have a 49 percent chance of being married to a woman who cheats. 
Percentage of two cheaters in the marriage = 28 percent.
Percentage of man cheats, woman doesn't = 30 percent.

32 men who don't cheat have a 51 percent chance of being married to a woman who doesn't cheat. 
Percentage of no cheaters in the marriage = 16 percent.
Percentage of woman cheats, man doesn't = 16 percent. 

Then comes the confusing part: 28 plus 30 plus 16 plus 16 = 90 marriages.  We started with 100. 

What happened to the other 10?  In those last ten marriages one partner or the other is cheating with someone outside the group

Therefore, the actual percentage of marriages affected by cheating is probably closer to 84 percent than to 80. 

In only sixteen percent of marriages both partners stay faithful. 




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Corwynnde
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« Reply #10 on: May 21, 2009, 10:55:28 PM »

58 + 32 = 90
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BluesGuy
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« Reply #11 on: May 22, 2009, 04:20:05 AM »


58 + 32 = 90


Egad.  Sometimes I feel truly stupid.  Let's try this again.

To make this easier to follow, let's adjust the number of cheating women to 49 percent, and the non-cheaters to 51.  We'll keep cheating men at 58 percent, and non-cheaters at 32.42

Now, of 100 couples we see:

58 men who cheat have a 49 percent chance of being married to a woman who cheats.
Percentage of two cheaters in the marriage = 2829  percent.
Percentage of man cheats, woman doesn't = 30 percent.

32 42 men who don't cheat have a 51 percent chance of being married to a woman who doesn't cheat.
Percentage of no cheaters in the marriage = 16 21 percent.
Percentage of woman cheats, man doesn't = 16 21 percent.

Then comes the confusing part: 28 plus 30 plus 16 plus 16 = 90 marriages.  We started with 100.

What happened to the other 10?  In those last ten marriages one partner or the other is cheating with someone outside the group.


Therefore, the actual percentage of marriages affected by cheating is probably closer to 84 79 percent than to 80.

In only sixteen 21 percent of marriages both partners stay faithful. 
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Sanguinista
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« Reply #12 on: May 22, 2009, 06:22:50 AM »

Okay, I guess I've figured out why the numbers aren't passing the smell test. 

The scenario assumes one of two things that aren't true - either that each person only has one marriage, or that "once a cheater, always a cheater". 

Either that, or I'm incredibly naive. 
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Rowanthe
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« Reply #13 on: May 22, 2009, 06:50:29 AM »

My head hurts. 
But I still think we're missing something math-wise.  90% just seems rather ridiculous to me. 
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jillpill
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« Reply #14 on: May 22, 2009, 06:53:07 AM »

Your heard hurts, my eyes are crossed..

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